[1]潘恒毅.基于FRAM-MC的船员疲劳事故研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2023,(02):206-215.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2023.02.14]
　PAN Hengyi.The Study of Crew Fatigue Accidents Based on FRAM-MC[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2023,(02):206-215.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2023.02.14]
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基于FRAM-MC的船员疲劳事故研究()
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《江西师范大学学报》（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2023年02期
页码:
206-215
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-03-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Study of Crew Fatigue Accidents Based on FRAM-MC
文章编号:
1000-5862(2023)02-0206-10
作者:
潘恒毅
(上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海 201306)
Author(s):
PAN Hengyi
(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
关键词:
船员疲劳;  功能共振分析;  蒙特卡罗仿真;  航运事故
Keywords:
crew fatigue;  Function Resonance Accident Model(FRAM);  Monte Carlo simulation;  shipping accident
分类号:
U 676.1
DOI:
10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2023.02.14
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对船员疲劳事故,利用功能共振分析(FRAM)与蒙特卡罗仿真(MC)相结合的方法,构建了船员疲劳事故致因分析模型(FRAM-MC).以“深能1”轮搁浅事故为案例,通过梳理事件经过和FRAM-MC模型计算并实证分析,结果表明:基于FRAM-MC的船员疲劳事故分析方法可建立清晰事故层次结构,有助于理清事故致因,其功能可变性和耦合分析能够准确高效地找出事故发生的关键功能和关键路径,为功能屏障设置提供依据,从而制定针对性防控措施,有效提高海事运输系统安全性,其研究结果可为海事事故分析提供参考和科学依据.
Abstract:
Focusing on the crew fatigue accidents,a causal analysis model of crew fatigue accidents(FRAM-MC)is constructed by combining functional resonance analysis(FRAM)with Monte Carlo simulation(MC).Taking “SHENNENG 1” ship grounding accident as a case,by combing the event process and the FRAM-MC model calculation and empirical analysis,the results show that the FRAM-MC based crew fatigue accident analysis method can establish a clear accident hierarchy and help clarify the causes of accidents.Its function variability and coupling analysis can accurately and efficiently find out the key functions and critical paths of accidents,providing a basis for the setting of functional barriers,so as to formulate targeted prevention and control measures and effectively improve the safety of maritime transport system.The research results can provide reference and scientific basis for maritme accident analysis.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-01-03
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(52271363)资助项目.
作者简介:潘恒毅(1990—),男,江西南昌人,博士研究生,主要从事交通运输规划与管理研究.E-mail:panhybb@sina.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-03-25