[1]陶长琪,徐志琴.我国中部地区潜在经济增长率的测算及其影响因素研究[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,(02):193-198.
 TAO Changqi,XU Zhiqin.The Estimating and Influencing Factors of Potential Economic Growth Rate in the Central Region of China[J].,2017,(02):193-198.
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我国中部地区潜在经济增长率的测算及其影响因素研究()
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《江西师范大学学报》(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2017年02期
页码:
193-198
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-03-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Estimating and Influencing Factors of Potential Economic Growth Rate in the Central Region of China
作者:
陶长琪徐志琴
江西财经大学统计学院,江西省经济预测与决策研究中心,江西 南昌 330013
Author(s):
TAO ChangqiXU Zhiqin
School of Statistics,Jiangxi Economic Forecasting and Decision-Making Research Center,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang Jiangxi 330013
关键词:
中部地区 潜在经济增长率 测算 影响因素
Keywords:
the central region potential economic growth rate estimating influencing factors
分类号:
F 224.0
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
运用生产函数法对我国中部6省的潜在经济增长率进行了测算,并从产业结构、人口结构和城乡结构3个视角出发,运用中部6省2001—2014年的面板数据模型对潜在经济增长的影响因素进行了实证分析,结论显示:2001—2014年间我国中部地区各省份实际经济增长率均低于其潜在经济增长率,且近年来潜在经济增长率呈持续下降趋势; 产业结构合理化能够促进潜在经济增长,而产业结构高级化不利于其增长; 劳动年龄人口份额增加能够显著促进潜在经济增长,而人口抚养比上升不利于其增长; 城市化率提高有利于潜在经济增长,而城乡收入差距增大不利于其增长,但这种不利影响尚不显著.
Abstract:
With the production function method,the six provinces’ potential economic growth rate in the central region of China are estimated.It reveals that the potential economic growth rate of the six provinces is higher than the real growth rate in 2001 and 2014,and it showed a continuous downward trend.And then a panel data model is established to measure the impact of factors on the potential economic growth rate from the structure perspective,using the data from 2001 to 2014.The results show that industrial structure reasonable can promote economic growth potential,but the structure senior not,the increase in the working-age population can significantly promote the potential economic growth while the increase in population dependency ratio has an adverse effect,the increase of urbanization rate is beneficial to the potential growth,but the increase of urban-rural income gap is not conducive to its growth,but the adverse effect is not significant.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-11-20基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大招标课题(15ZDC021)和江西省经济社会发展基地智库课题(2016037)资助项目.作者简介:陶长琪(1967-),男,江西临川人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事数量经济学研究.E-mail:tcq_822@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01