[1]綦昕瑶,刘贵花*,贺志明,等.东江源寻乌水流域径流变化特征及其原因分析[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2020,(01):89-94.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.01.15]
　QI Xinyao,LIU Guihua*,HE Zhiming,et al.The Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Its Driving Factors in the Xunwu River Basin of the Source Area of Dongjiang River[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2020,(01):89-94.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.01.15]
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东江源寻乌水流域径流变化特征及其原因分析()
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《江西师范大学学报》（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年01期
页码:
89-94
栏目:
环境科学
出版日期:
2020-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Its Driving Factors in the Xunwu River Basin of the Source Area of Dongjiang River
文章编号:
1000-5862(2020)01-0089-06
作者:
綦昕瑶1; 2; 刘贵花1*; 贺志明3; 齐述华1; 史佳旺1; 杨先擎1
1.江西师范大学地理与环境学院,鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西 南昌 330022; 2.福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建 福州 350007; 3.江西省人工影响天气办公室,江西 南昌 300096
Author(s):
QI Xinyao1; 2; LIU Guihua1*; HE Zhiming3; QI Shuhua1; SHI Jiawang1; YANG Xianqing1
1.College of Geography Environment,Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research,Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China; 2.College of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou Fujian 350007,
关键词:
东江源区;  寻乌水流域;  径流变化;  IHACRES;  土地利用变化
Keywords:
the source area of Dongjiang River;  the Xunwu River basin;  runoff change;  IHACRES;  land use change
分类号:
P 33; F 301
DOI:
10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.01.15
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
东江源水资源安全影响着珠三角社会经济发展和香港繁荣稳定,径流是水资源安全评价的重要水文要素.该文收集东江源区干流寻乌水1980-2016年逐日水文气象数据、6期土地利用及土地耕作属性等数据,采用IHACRES水文模型和统计分析等方法,分析寻乌水径流变化特征及其影响因素.结果表明:在模型基准期(1980-1992)和变化期(2009-2016)中,径流年际变化模拟效果评价指标R2、NS和PBIAS的值分别为0.99、0.99、0.37和0.8
Abstract:
The safety of water resources in the source area of Dongjiang River affects the social and economic development of the Pearl River Delta and the prosperity and stability of Hongkong.Runoff is an important hydrological factor for water resources security evaluation.The data include hydro-meteorological data and land use data,such as daily values of runoff,rainfall,temperature during 1980-2016,and land use maps and land tillage data of six phases,which is the main stream of the source area of Dongjiang River.The IHACRES model and statistical analysis methods are adopted to analyze the characteristics of runoff change and its driving factors in the Xunwu River.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.The two stages of 1980-1992 and 2009-2016 are selected as the datum period and change period of the IHACRES model,respectively.The three evaluation criteria values(R2,NS and PBIAS)of annual runoff simulation in both datum period and change period are 0.99,0.99,0.37 and 0.82,0.82,0.04,respectively,which indicates that IHACRES model is suitable for runoff simulation in the Xunwu River Basin.The effect of seasonal simulation is also acceptable(0.72≤R2≤0.92,0.71≤NS≤0.75,1.72≤PBIAS≤2.33)except autumn.The R2,NS and PBIAS values of the model in autumn are 0.53,0.39 and -9.61,respectively.These indicate that the climatic factors are the main causes of the interannual variation of runoff in the source area of Dongjiang River.Human activities induce the decrease of runoff in the source area of Dongjiang River in autumn.By analyzing the characteristics of land use change of the study area,the area of orchard increases by about 40% and the area of woodland decreases by about 40% in recent years.The orchards need sufficient water in the autumn mature period and increase water intake from river, which results in the reduction of the measured runoff in autumn.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-06-12
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41501026),江西省教育厅科学基金(GJJ160321)和江西省博士后科研基金(2014KY13)资助项目.
通信作者:刘贵花(1984-),女,山东菏泽人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail:yafeng9918@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-02-10