[1]范宏达,龚海林*,温冬雪.人口老龄化、城镇化与基本公共服务支出结构——基于省级面板数据实证分析[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2022,(04):357-362.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2022.04.05]
　FAN Hongda,GONG Hailin*,WEN Dongxue.The Population Aging,Urbanization and the Government Expenditure Structure of Basic Public Services——A Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2022,(04):357-362.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2022.04.05]
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人口老龄化、城镇化与基本公共服务支出结构——基于省级面板数据实证分析()
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《江西师范大学学报》（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2022年04期
页码:
357-362
栏目:
数学与应用数学
出版日期:
2022-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Population Aging,Urbanization and the Government Expenditure Structure of Basic Public Services——A Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
文章编号:
1000-5862(2022)04-0357-06
作者:
范宏达; 龚海林*; 温冬雪
江西师范大学数学与统计学院,江西 南昌 330022
Author(s):
FAN Hongda; GONG Hailin*; WEN Dongxue
School of Mathematics and Statistics,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China
关键词:
人口老龄化;  基本公共服务支出结构;  城镇化;  中介效应
Keywords:
population aging;  expenditure structure of basic public services;  urbanization;  mediation effect
分类号:
F 812.45
DOI:
10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2022.04.05
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于政府基本公共服务支出行为视角,该文以2010—2019年31个省(直辖市、自治区)的数据为样本,采用面板计量模型研究人口老龄化对政府基本公共服务支出结构的影响效果及影响机制,面板回归模型分析结果表明:总体上人口老龄化对政府基本公共服务支出结构的影响呈“倒U型”关系,在人口老龄化初期政府会先偏向医疗卫生支出,在人口老龄化经过拐点后政府会偏向教育支出,目前中国除老龄化进程比较早的上海市以外其他地区均处于“倒U型”左侧.影响机制的结果显示城镇化水平在人口老龄化影响政府基本公共服务支出结构中起中介效应.
Abstract:
From the perspective of government expenditure behavior of basic public services,the data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019 is taken as samples,and the panel econometric model is used to study the effect and mechanism of population aging on government expenditure structure of basic public services.The analysis results of panel regression model show that overall population aging basic public services to the government expenditure structure in the influence of "inverted U" relationship,at the beginning of the aging population,the government will be to medical and health spending,in an ageing population after turning point,the government will be biased towards education spending,at present other provinces except Shanghai that have an earlier aging process in China are in the left side of the "inverted U".The results of influencing mechanism show that the level of urbanization plays a mediating role in the impact of population aging on the expenditure structure of government basic public services.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-01-15
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(71761019)资助项目.
通信作者:龚海林(1974—),男,江西南昌人,副教授,博士,主要从事经济统计研究.E-mail:gonghailin6@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-07-25