[1]侯 鑫,丁明军*,管琪卉,等.基于农户尺度的鄱阳湖平原水稻多熟种植现状及其驱动因素分析[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2020,(04):429-436.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.04.16]
　HOU Xin,DING Mingjun*,GUAN Qihui,et al.The Analysis of the Current Status and Driving Factors of Rice Plantation in the Poyang Lake Plain Based on the Scale of Farmers[J].Journal of Jiangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2020,(04):429-436.[doi:10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.04.16]
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基于农户尺度的鄱阳湖平原水稻多熟种植现状及其驱动因素分析()
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《江西师范大学学报》（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年04期
页码:
429-436
栏目:
鄱阳湖研究
出版日期:
2020-08-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Analysis of the Current Status and Driving Factors of Rice Plantation in the Poyang Lake Plain Based on the Scale of Farmers
文章编号:
1000-5862(2020)04-0429-08
作者:
侯 鑫1; 丁明军1; 2*; 管琪卉1; 张 亮1
1.江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西 南昌 330022; 2.江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域教育部重点实验室,江西 南昌 330022
Author(s):
HOU Xin1; DING Mingjun1; 2*; GUAN Qihui1; ZHANG Liang1
1.College of Geographic and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China; 2.Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research of Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China
关键词:
多熟种植;  农户;  Logistic回归;  驱动因素;  鄱阳湖平原
Keywords:
multiple cropping;  farmers;  Logistic regression;  driving factors;  the Poyang Lake Plain
分类号:
F 301.2
DOI:
10.16357/j.cnki.issn1000-5862.2020.04.16
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
该文以多熟种植典型区域——江西省鄱阳湖地区为例,基于农户问卷调查资料和Logistic回归模型,分析了该地区水稻熟制的现状特征及其影响因素.研究结果表明:(i)在研究区内约66.47%的受访农户选择多熟种植的耕作模式且存在明显的地域差异;(ii)农户水稻多熟种植模式的选择主要受灌溉条件、地块面积、家庭规模、微地貌类型、农户对农业补贴的评价、非农总收入、旱灾等因素的影响;(iii)灌溉条件、地块面积、家庭规模、微地貌类型、农业补贴与农户水稻熟制的选择呈显著正相关,而不断爆发的旱灾频度和非农总收入的增多对水稻的多熟种植具有明显的抑制作用;(iv)未来政府应加强水利设施建设,加大政策扶持力度,因地制宜地引导农民进行多熟种植,以保障区域粮食安全.
Abstract:
Based on the survey data from farmers in the Poyang Lake Plain,the potential mechanism of the variation in cropping intensity is discussed in the Poyang Lake Plain using the binary logistic regression model.The results are as follows.(i)66.47% of the surveyed farmers in the study area employ multiple cropping and there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in terms of cropping intensity.(ii)Farmers' behaviors are mainly affected by irrigation conditions,land area,household size,micro-geomorphic landforms,farmers' evaluation of agricultural subsidies,non-agricultural incomes and the drought.(iii)Irrigation conditions,land area,household size,micro-geomorphic landforms and farmers' evaluation of agricultural subsidies are positively correlated with multiple cropping intensity,while the left two factors played obvious negative role on it.(iv)Local governments should ensure adequate water resources by strengthening the construction of basic facilities.It is necessary to make informed decisions depending on local conditions,especially areas with varies types of micro-geomorphology.By establishing favorable policy,local governments can be able to guide farmers for increasing cropping intensity,thereby securing food supplies.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-11-17
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41761020)和江西师范大学地理与环境学院科研基金(2019001)资助项目.
通信作者:丁明军(1979-),男,湖北谷城人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事土地利用/覆被变化研究.E-mail:dingmingjun1128@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-08-10